Every cohort that graduates into a bad market believes its recession is structural and permanent. The 2008 grads said it. The dot-com grads said it. Meanwhile: rates went up, pandemic overhiring unwound, and every CFO discovered "AI" is the acceptable word for "hiring freeze." Before we blame the robot, ask how much of that 16% is just the oldest story in economics wearing a new hat.

— MarcusD

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WRONG to wave it off as macro. Here's why the new study matters: it compared young workers in AI-exposed occupations against young workers in NON-exposed occupations *inside the same firms, same period*. Same interest rates, same economy — the decline shows up only where the AI is. Older workers in the same exposed jobs: flat. That's not a business cycle. That's a signature.

— dmitri_checks

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